Danny Homeschooling Dad

New Music: Hevia

2009-12-06T09:10:00.000-08:00

Thanks to V.D., he's pointed out music by Helva.

I like Enigma and do find Helva interesting enough. I'll have to check out Deep Forest, too.

For general reference: My tastes are extreme: pretty much any instrumental pop music (heavy metal [which my wife loves] to Jazz and new age) as well as Early music (Gregorian chant, Renaissance, Baroque music, especially J.S. Bach).

Other artists I like:

Exchange
Mannheim Steamroller
Michael Gettel
Spencer Nilsen
Checkfield
John Tesh

Cheap and Anonymous Phone

2009-09-26T23:36:00.000-07:00

These days, it's possible to get decent prepaid phones. For $100 or so they have internet capable phones. And at places like Walmart you can buy the phone and prepaid minutes completely anonymously by paying cash.

When I first tried to buy one about 3 years ago, they asked me for name and address at a wireless carrier's kiosk in Circuit City. At Walmart, you can buy it like any other goods and activate the phone at home.

We bought phones for our sons and I make sure that they remain anonymous (always paying the minutes with cash -- once they leave home, all bets are off if they have the discipline to be cash only).

The reason I went with prepaid is that it's cheaper than adding extra phone to the family plan: $120 (+ tax) per year vs. $100 per year flat fee. Plus what they use they pay for since $100 doesn't go very far (we require that at least $20 be left in their account so that we can call them at any time). For $10 per month, they can get unlimited texting to those on the same network.

We're still learning how the prepaid works since we haven't really played with it until this year (first 2 years, I didn't really do much with it)...

Copyright 2009, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Teenage sons

2009-06-25T17:26:00.001-07:00

Now that my younger son is in high school, challenge is how to raise them to be real men. They had it easy until now but in few years they will leave the coup and I'm not sure how ready they are.

Hearing about children who mooches off parents is a wake up call for me.

What to do about it, is a good question.....

Market craziness again

2009-03-10T12:25:00.000-07:00

Looks like another bear market rally today: I got tired of waiting with SDS so I sold them all with 1% profit.

I still have DXD and SRS and will ride out the storm for now (I may add to SRS)....

Copyright 2009, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Depression Cookin

2009-03-09T20:40:00.000-07:00

(gotten it from Mish's blog.)

Of Market Actions

2009-03-06T07:53:00.000-08:00

It's good to feel being right but at the same time, seeing a historical downturn of the stock market gives me a tinge of guilt (more of survivor's guilt). I certainly feel sorry for those who trusted the market experts saying that holding on for the long term is worth it. Letting go was the right thing to do last year, at any point, since we are way below the lowest point of 2008. I bought some SDS on the day of the lowest close of 2008 (Nov 20) and I have finally gotten back to black this week (after accounting for ex-dividend) -- short ETF's do not track the index perfectly over the long term so do expect some divergence from the index over time.

However, I believe the general trend is down (still) since we are far from hitting the bottom (i.e., no real capitulation, yet). The VIX index is still much lower than the peak of last year (hit almost 90 while today we are at around 50). People on TV are still saying hang on, we may hit bottom any day now or stocks do great over the long run (even though we hit record 52-week low almost every day now). When everyone talks about shorting or never touching the stock market ever (maybe the sign would be when the POTUS confesses that buying stocks was not a good idea after all), then we should all cover our shorts (sell my short ETF's) and go back to buying stocks (i.e., going long instead of short).

So: Sell now before things get worse is my message -- or better yet, join me and go short the market since I expect we have much lower to go. We may not hit -89% like during GD1, but another 20-30% down won't surprise me (-70% from the peak) nor would I be surprised if we break GD1 and go below -90% -- we had the greatest bubble in US history when it comes to housing prices -- never before did we have investing environment where people were leveraged infinity to 1 with 0% downpayment on a huge investment (10x median income). Even in the 20's, people had to put 10% down on stocks (at most 10 to 1 leverage). The stock market bubble should have ended after dotbomb crashed. However, it was temporarily saved and moved onto the housing bubble. It seems we have only gold and Treasury's bubbles left today. And do note that baby boomers are hitting retirement ages which means they will sell their stocks (to retire or just to go to safer investments) exasperating the stock decline!

I did sell off some SRS shares to raise cash earlier this week at US$91.39 (it went down few bucks more afterward [so for about one day I felt like a genius] but then it has been climbing up since then). Right now, it's being quoted at US$107-110. So much for my market timing....

Copyright 2009, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Depression story

2009-03-05T14:56:00.000-08:00

Our 2 sons take classes once (younger) or twice a week (older) and it seems that the younger one was taking his money and buying lunch there for few weeks (I guess he got tired of packing his (free) lunch).

Anyway, this week, he decided due to bad economy that he's going pack lunch now. But get this: instead of slapping some sandwich or hot dog together he boils hot water and put it into a thermos plus one cup a ramen package.

We always remind him to save money and don't spend money so freely. And he also knows how we invest our money (short such that market down days are celebrated by yours truly -- not something I talk about at work nor much to my church friends). (We also tell him not to blabber how we're doing to his classmates since we know most people are suffering on all fronts: lower pay (job/hour cuts for some), lower investments and lower home prices).

The reality of GD2 is slowly gaining traction, even among school aged children. (Our sons had to do a book report on GD1 last fall so they have read about the history and some feel for the time we're about to face.)

Copyright 2009, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Wealth of Americans Wiped Out

2009-02-12T13:43:00.000-08:00

At least that's the head line at MarketWatch.

Sad to see many people lose a lot of money the past 7 years due to the Ponzi economy run by the government. The Fed (Federal Reserve Bank) is the worst of the bunch but don't forget
CONgress and Executive branch either.

In 2001/2002 I knew things couldn't continue business as usual so I went all cash when I had a chance to roll over my 401K to IRA early 2002. From Dec '01 I was contributing to S&P 500 index at work just to get emploer matching but I but went all cash in Mar '07. At my current job from Jun '07 I was in international mutual fund until Apr '08 when they changed 401K provider and I went to all cash too.

Starting in summer of 2007 I started to go short in my IRa and I'm now 20% cash and 80% short. Last year I made about 20% and this year I'm just breaking even YTD (thanks to the Obama mortgage rumor I am no longer strongly in the black).

In summary, the past 7 years we didn't go through ups and downs of the market and we've done very well: total return of +48% in 7 years with my rollover IRA. We lost money on our home in TX when we sold in 2005 but the market returns more than made up for that loss!

As for the future I expect further decline of the stock market as people face the realiity of GD2 (Great Depression 2). Whiich is why I'm still 80% short in the market...

Copyright 2009, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

more home projects

2009-01-26T13:23:00.000-08:00

We more or less finished the kitchen (sewage plumbing of the kitchen isn't quite right so I'll have to redo it eventually but the leak is minor so no big rush).

I've put in ethernet cables, so now I have to pretty up the walls covering the big holes left over from electrical work we had done before -- which I took advantage of for the ethernet wiring. I also brought in outdoor TV antenna from bedroom to living room using the same hole as the ethernet wiring. We've gone cheap by cancelling cable and watching only off the air HD programming: we have a PC with HW encoder to convert the analog signal to digital TV and has 1.5TB of diskspace to record plenty of hours of TV.

Our TV PC will also serves as our majicjack host. I was using an old Pentium 4 @ 2.4 GHz which was too slow and produced garbled line quite often. Newer PC is core 2 duo with 2GB of memory so it should handle the phone better. I also set my router to prioritize the media PC since it doesn't
normally need the bandwidth. Plus the media PC is on all the time so we didn't have to keep 2 computers on always.

BTW: Fixing up drywall isn't something I'm looking forward to. One of those have to do but not fun work.

Copyright, 2009, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Attempted break in

2009-01-23T14:41:00.000-08:00

Last week two low lives tried to break into our garage. We were in the process of replacing the door so even though it didn't close properly, I didn't bother to fix it.

Well, the criminals noticed it as an opening/invitation to enter the garage. So they tried to pull it open (and broke the some bolts and broke the frame). The old garage door was one piece but also had a regular door cut into the middle and they tried to force open the door, too (and jammed it in the process).

Our neighbor approached them to ask what they were up to and apparently they claimed to be deliverying something and pretended to leave a message and took off.

When I came home, the neighbor informed me about it as soon as I got out of my car. I glanced at the garage and did noticed that it was open a bit more than usual but didn't look into it. Well, my wife insisted that something wasn't right so I tried to go and open the door and couldn't. I called out my younger son to craw through the opening and open from the inside but he couldn't just unlock and push open. It was jammed such that he had to kick it open!

When I got in, I saw the various damage done and tried to close it up. My neighbor came over with craw bars to help me put the door back to the point where I can nail/screw in the door to the frame.

Apparently there are criminals who knock on doors to see if anyone answers and then rob the place if no one appears. With our home, they only went for the garage before our neighbor got nosey. My wife tells me that she has seen in the local news where some of the nicer neighborhoods, they would go to the back and break in the house.

At the time of the attempt, neither my wife nor myself was at home, but our sons were (we do homeschool our children). We have told them to keep out of sight so they did and they didn't get a look at them. At least my eldest has permission and training to unlock the shotgun and shoot at "targets". When we talked about the incident, my youngest wanted permission to wield a 9mm handgun, but I said no since I don't trust his shooting abilities (yet). Maybe after we take some self defense training course (I hope take one on shotgun and another on handgun with my sons later this year).

Copyright 2009 DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Relearning the joys of home debtorship

2009-01-19T06:32:00.000-08:00

Now that we "own" a home, we have the "privilege" of fixing and upgrading our own home.

Since our home is over 50 years old, there's a lot that needs to be upgraded and repaired:

Replace our heater: first thing to get replaced since it was old and some black stuff (smoke?) were coming out the output of the machine.
Sand and refinish our hardwood floor: we removed all the carpet (seemed new just to sell the home) in the house and then hired a general contractor to sand and stain the floor. They didn't do a good job of staining (smeared some on the walls, here and there) but we did get what we paid for and can't really complain.
New blinds for all the windows.
Replaced the shower head from fixed head to hose kind with multi-spray.
New external door locks (4 doors).
Replaced 2 bedroom door knobs. 3 more to go (2 bathrooms and 1 last bedroom)
Various electrical work: we hired electrician to add GCFI to our bathrooms, kitchen and garage. We also had wiring added to support garbage disposal and dishwasher in the kitchen. We had 2 electrical outlets converted from direct wiring for garage door opener and kitchen vent. And 3 prong wiring to our sons bedroom and 2 to our living room (one for entertainment center and one for treadmill).
Replaced the vent hood with microwave/vent.
We replaced a ceiling fan in the dining room and added a new ceiling fan in the kitchen. (We paid our son to do the work.)
Put in a new sink.
Put in a new garbage disposal.
New refrigerator. (The house came with an old one [which we just dumped] and we got rid of our old one in Austin: the past 3 years, we were using my sister's hand me down: here in SoCal, our electric company is offering $50 rebate for turning in old frig, so we made money on ours :-)
Replaced the garage door and opener
This past week, we: Replaced the kitchen countertops, replaced the cooktop (from old electric with heating elements to smooth top), put in dishwasher, new kitchen faucet and reverse osmosis water filteration system. For a while, our kitchen was a mess with various appliances in and out of the kitchen and tools all over the place.
We bought a new front door but haven't installed it yet. Maybe this week sometime.

This is on top of unpacking our stuff from boxes and organizing them. And bolting down things like bookshelves (for earthquake safety) and gun safe. And hope to start normal up keep like mowing the lawn.

And to think we're just getting started...

Copyright 2009, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

211: Help for the new poor

2008-12-07T13:17:00.000-08:00

LA Times article as the scoop for those who are newly poor (thanks to commentator fried at CR): "A guide for the newly poor: A major financial or personal blow can make obtaining just the necessities of life a challenge. Here's how to cope." I don't recall seeing such article in the downturn of the '01/02.

I was living in Austin back then and things were bleak but not this bleak since it was only the dotcom and related hitech businesses -- things were tough but not impossible to find jobs. All the coworkers I knew from a company which went bust in '02, they all found jobs that year (not all in Austin but still). This time around, it's not just the hitech and financials which are suffering. Real estate in Austin went down such that we had "naked" buildings (steel frames rusting away for years) and cities where talking about raising tax rates to make up for lower appraisals. In fact, when we sold our home in 2005 (bought in 2002), we did lose a good chunk of money (right at the peak of the California & Florida real estate bubble peak). Austin didn't get the bubble until last year but that bubble was rather small compared to what happened here in Orange County.

Anyway, we're just getting started with GD2, so hang on tight: you ain't see nothing yet....

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

"Progressive" South: Asians in politics

2008-12-07T00:57:00.000-08:00

I read "Louisiana delivers GOP 2 seats in Congress" out of vague curiosity, but was surprise to read about first Vietnamese-American elected to Congress as a Republican.

Congrats to Anh "Joseph" Cao! Louisiana has claims to not only the first Indian-American governor but Asian-American Congressman, too. What is the South turning into? I would have thought Democratic Californians would put Indian-American as governor or Vietnamese-American as congressman. So much for the "progressive" Californians...

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Jobs for GD2

2008-12-07T00:09:00.000-08:00

It seems that president-elect Obama wants to pump up the economy with keep busy jobs (like changing light bulbs).

As a libertarian, I say that less is more and government should stay out of the economy (other than cutting spending and taxes: less intervention is better).

However, some commentator at CR pointed out the too many have negatives and contribute no positive way out of this economic downturn. Well, here are some of my thoughts:

1) Allow people to farm at home. There are people who do quite well on a regular plot of land (e.g., Dervaes family farms about 3 tons (6,000 pounds) of food on 1/10 acre of "farm land" in Pasadena, CA not too far from downtown L.A.). This means getting rid of dumb laws like you must have green lawn in your front yard. For those who don't own a land with dirt (renters and condo owners), why not open up unused land like city parks and allow people to farm there? Also encourage the youths to help their neighbors who are elderly or disabled.

2) Harvest rain water. By collecting rain, you can save lots of money. And helps the environment too (need to take less water from the source, like what we do in California: piping it from North to South).

3) Free energy regulations so that small generators can grow (be it natural gas based or mini windmill or solar or geothermal or whatnot). Too much regulation hampers innovation (most safety regulations are a joke: why do so many people die even after FDA approval of drugs?) and prevents small inventors from creating and selling products to local home owners (or even renters). (I bet there are tons regarding electrical generators as well as how the power can be used/transmitted -- I mean if one person wants to "sell" to his neighbors, I bet he would be shut down by electric regulators.)

4) Free communications (i.e., deregulate FCC). Allow people to create neighborhood wireless internet system. Why should big companies get monopolies?

5) Deregulate vehicle rules. Too much rules make it hard for inventors to innovate new propulsion technology for cars (or other alternative vehicles). I can't believe that even biodeisels are taxed/regulated (I heard of a case where one can't process used oil and pour into your diesel engine without paying taxes).

Just as we had a lot of technological process without government interference, a lot of innovation can happen as soon as government gets out of the way. Now that Great Depression 2 is upon us, we should allow small guys have more freedom to explore and allow them to innovate out of this economic downturn. What we don't need are more bridge to nowhere and other boondongle projects.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Rent vs Buy

2008-12-06T09:55:00.003-08:00

Here's our calculation: Rent is currently at $2150/month (that $50/month is for our dog). We could probably get $1750/month if we sign up for a lease.

The home we're buying is $320,000. The downpayment of 20% equals $64,000. Plus closing cost of about 3% which would total $73,600. Which, if we were earning 3.77% interest (5 yr CD according to bankrate), it would generate $231 per month.

So, renting is about $1,519/month.

With 256K mortgage at 5.62% the payments would be about $1473 per month. Taxes $290, insurance $60. Total of $1823. With about $350/month of tax savings the first few years.

That's $1,473/month. About $46 per month cheaper.

However, things aren't so simple since there is the issue of maintenance (adds to the monthly cost) and expected inflation (lowers the worth of savings and increases the worth of a home) and price change of the home itself (which, if in the normal economy, things will rise with inflation). Unfortunately, we are not in a normal economy, we are in Great Depression 2 (GD2) and we're already 1 year into it: we probably have another 5-15 years to go (depending on how badly the government intervenes, so the more intervention, the worse things will get -- if Japan is any indicator, we may even be down 20+ years). We will lose money on our home if we have to sell in the next 20-30 years (or more). Try to put that into monthy equation!

Note that since we'll be leveraged 4:1 (i.e., 20% downpayment), it won't take much to wipe out our downpayment (i.e., 20% decline = zero equity for us). If I ever get unemployed, maybe I too can get a bail out!

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Sensible Rules (for once)

2008-12-05T23:44:00.000-08:00

Interior Department rule issued Friday allows an individual to carry a loaded weapon in a park or wildlife refuge — but only if the person has a permit for a concealed weapon, and if the state where the park or refuge is located also allows loaded firearms in parks.

Now, if only California would turn into shall issue state....

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Death of a Stranger

2008-12-01T01:32:00.000-08:00

Today, the world is a sadder place for me because an ex-anonymous blogger died: Tanta of Calculated Risk. I didn't know her personally and I didn't even get in touch with her via email. But I have read her writings for the past 2+ years or so and I cannot help but cry over her death.

I guess time creates bonds which are not quickly severed and the end creates sadness (for me, at any rate). The other death I can remember crying for rather recently was over Princess Diana which I didn't understand myself but was saddened anyway.

I heard of an acquaintance passing away recently but that didn't make me cry, probably because I lacked the depth of relationship necessary to cry.

I suppose if my paternal grandmother died (she's in her late 90's and still is rather healthy), I won't be crying too much either since I was never close to her (we have never lived close to her all my life and rarely visited her -- especially once we moved to the US: I have never visited her with my parents nor with my sister). Two of my uncles and one aunt died in the past 10 years but I didn't cry for them since I didn't know them very well.

It's sad that today, death is such an unspeakable thing: we see killings and murders on TV but death is pretty much a taboo in this modern era. For me, it's much closer since I have volunteered at nursing home where many (all?) people are in holding pattern before they die (not necessarily a hospice but not too far from it, either) (and have known a few who did die). I have gotten to know many people who faced death in their own ways. (I suppose that for those who do not believe in life after death, it would probably be a too painful exercise of hopelessness.) Also, my mother had breast cancer and a stroke, so death won't be a surprise for me.

When extended families were the norm, people died left and right and it wasn't a huge deal (one reason for having many children was to insure that the family survives infant mortality, etc.). However, now with only one or two children, death is much for shocking -- if you saw the footage from China after the earthquake this year, there were parents who lost all their meaning for life when their only child (with one child policy) died inside a school building.

What can be done about preparing my sons? One reason for the move from Austin to SoCal was to bring them closer to my parents as they face their old age (i.e., death). I suppose having them volunteer at nursing home or hospice would be good so I'll be thinking about it as an activity as my sons finish off high school (if my parent's health deteriorates, the focus will be on the family but if not, volunteering nearby would probably make the best sense).

"Death has been swallowed up in victory."
"Where, O death, is your victory?
Where, O death, is your sting?"
The sting of death is sin, and the power of sin is the law. But thanks be to God! He gives us the victory through our Lord Jesus Christ. [1 Cor 13:54b-57]

Home Now

2008-11-29T17:47:00.000-08:00

It's been just over 3 years since we sold our home in Austin, TX. And now in the OC, we are about to buy our first home in California. And as much as I would hate to get a mortgage, our savings isn't enough to buy outright. While the prices are coming down, we are far from hitting the bottom, since the prices are 4 to 5 times median income, rather than ideal 2.5 to 3 times income (although historically, OC hasn't seen it go below 4 in the past 20 years or so). The GD2 we're in, I won't be surprised if we bottom out at 2.5 or lower since the unemployment will get very high.

With that said, the apartment we're renting is costing a pretty penny (because we're out of lease and renting month to month) and the home rentals aren't much different in price, while the mortgage payment on the house we're about the buy will be less than the rent.

So financially, it makes sense to buy now at the price we can afford. We know (I have been able to convince my wife that the income multiples do not make sense and the pre bubble prices are what we will eventually get here in OC) that the prices will go down and we will lose a good deal of our money on this house (I think over 50% loss, even though the market has corrected at least 40% so far since the peak prices). Even then, we want to buy because our sons will graduate in matter of few years (2.5 years for our oldest) and it won't make sense to buy after they leave the nest. We want them to get experience maintaining things around the house, raise a garden, an animal or two (chickens) and work on a car (buy an old used car and fix it up). All these things require a real home with yard and garage.

And at the rate of government intervention being floated by the leaders of this country, the home prices may take years, if not decades before they come down to an afford price (2-3 times income), even here in the OC. Japan took 17+ years before few regions bottom out and started to rise the past 2 or 3 years. Unfortunately, the short term boom was all for naught as the US drags down the rest of the world as we enter GD2.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Civics Quiz

2008-11-24T07:57:00.000-08:00

I took the Civics Quiz (pointed out at VD) and got 30 out of 33 (91%). Not bad, but not great, either...

Market Craziness Continues

2008-11-19T09:12:00.000-08:00

I've decided to sell my SRS today. I made 109% on my shares. Not too bad a return considering that the market is down 30% since I started buying SRS.

It probably has a ways to go up (SRS), but I needed to raise cash and my DXD is only up a little and SDS is red (I bought SDS on Oct 10, the lowest interday price for 2008 so far). I'm waiting for a new lows to be established before I sell DXD & SRS, of course....

Update: 12:14 AM Nov 20: Well, so much for my panic selling. At the end of the day, it went up another few percent such that I would have gained about 133%....

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Bear Market Comparisons

2008-10-13T19:24:00.000-07:00

NY Times has a cool interactive page where you can visually compare the various bear markets over the past 80 years on one graph to get relative comparisons.

Jim Cramer was [Almost] right!

2008-10-09T23:26:00.001-07:00

If you missed it, Jim Cramer made a prescient prediction earlier this week on Today's show.

The bank lending default crisis that put financial firms around the country on the brink of collapse could bring “as much as a 20 percent decrease in the stock market,” Cramer predicted.

Well, he made that public when S&P 500 index was around 1135 pts. Today, the index is down at 910. Which works out to be: 20 percent! Good call Mr. Mad Money! [I write this tongue in cheek since he's made a lot of wrong calls, including not anticipating the market being down 40% since Oct'07: your blogger on the other hand is doing quite well since he is invested in short ETF like DXD and SRS.]

Update Oct 10: I was wrong: my starting point was off by one day. He started around 1053 and today it closed at 899, which is down 15%. If you look at the bottom of today at 839, then it would be -21%, so not too bad after all.

What will happen tomorrow or the next week or next year, it's hard to say. But one thing for sure: economy isn't looking good and I believe we'll get worse before we get better (in fact, I'm anticipating Great Depression 2 or GD2).

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Don't bail out the Wall Street!

2008-09-29T00:02:00.000-07:00

Well, I couldn't stand it any longer with the on going bailout bill about to be voted by Congress this week. I wrote a short email to my House of Representative and my 2 Senators. I'd rather see the wall street work it out with their own money (sell their stocks to the point of being worthless, stop dividend payments, to name some of my ideas), rather than tax money. As it is, US is already about 500 Billion in deficit this year plus $30B for BSC, $200B for FNM and FRE, $85 for AIG and $25B for F/GM/Chrysler(?) and $700B bail out bill. How much does U.S. citizen have to be on the hook? Contact your congress people and let them know: no bail out for the fat cats!

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Wall Street Bail Out: Oppositions

2008-09-23T20:11:00.000-07:00

Here's one Congress person who gets the problems with the TARP (wall street bail out):

Of course, Ron Paul has consistently railed against any government overreach. Here's a commentary out today on CNN: "Commentary: Bailouts will lead to rough economic ride." (Check out Daily Paul for more articles (and a hat tip for the CNN article) and of course my favorite LRC for detailed analysis.)

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved

Market Craziness

2008-09-19T07:19:00.000-07:00

As you may have already heard, the U.S. government decided to intervene in the financial market this week in unprecedented methods: nationalizing AIG, disallowing shorting (of financial companies), U.S. Treasury will backstop money market funds. And will take over bad loans with TARP.

Unfortuntely, none of these actions solve the problems of the economy: job losses, too expensive homes, high inflation and wage stagnation. Mortgage problems will get worse as more people cannot pay them (job loss and/or higher reset rates of all those funny loans). GDII (Great Depression 2) is still on track in my opinion.

With that said, I've gotten out of the market mostly and taken my profits of all shares of: DXD, QID, SH. I still have SRS shares only because it's already in the red (and eventually things will go from bad to worse for real estate, so I'm going to hang on). I may buy some SKF but things are very much up in the air. I would have hung in if the government didn't get involved, but this morning, there is just too much unknown out there (government changing the rules overnight willy nilly). Privatized profits and socialized losses....

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Homeschooling and Choice

2008-08-21T22:51:00.000-07:00

Here's a great editorial on school choice: "Keep the option of single-sex ed." Some quotes:

Students are less concerned with impressing the opposite sex and are free to explore educational interests that they might otherwise ignore in a standard, coed environment.

Critics of single-sex education argue that socializing, especially between genders, should be an integral part of education.

One point in the debate is clear: Single-sex education isn't for everyone – thus the requirement that such programs remain voluntary.

Yet given that single-sex education is probably better for some kids and not for others, it seems that parents, and not the ACLU, are best positioned to make the decision about what learning environment would be best for their children.

Indeed, on several measures, support for greater choice in education is growing. Parents, in large number, are tired of the same one-size-fits-all public education system. They crave more flexibility and control over where, and under what circumstances, their children are taught.

If the recent debate in Kentucky teaches us anything, it isn't that single-sex education is good or bad, but that we desperately need more choice in education.

Replace the "single-sex education" with "home education" and voila, you get the same message: choice (by parents [and students]) is always a good thing.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Investor's Mind

2008-08-18T19:08:00.001-07:00

Here's a funny diagram of how an investor thinks (hat tip Digg):

I can relate because I've done some of this myself before. And lost lots of money this way.

Now, I know when to cut my losses and when to ride out the bumps. The past year or so, owning stocks like SH, DXD and QID has been painful since they have gone down about 16% and up 20+%. However, the fundamental course of the US economy (and world economy) is negative without any end in sight. I'm expecting Great Depression #2 (GD2) but I have no idea when people will face the reality of an economic depression (mainly because most of us have never lived through one).

What makes me so sure that we're getting a GD? The dotcom bubble begot the housing bubble and crazy asset inflation got so high that it will take many years if not decades to work through the message the bubbles have created. Just as Japan took almost 20 years to work through their bubble (and they will probably decline with the US so their recovery lasted only one or two years), I'd guess that US will take just as long to clean up the bubbles. The only difference between US and Japan is that US has very little personal savings while Japanese were (and still are) a nation of savers. People talk about transparencies of US financial system compared to Japan, but with tools like SIVs and other off the books financial instruments, I don't see much difference between the two countries. And like Japan, it seems that US government "has to do something" about it, prolonging and exasperating the downturn (just like GD1).

The only difference I can see between US and Japan is that with the Internet, news travel fast and accurate home price information is freely available, so the real estate prices may correct faster here than it was in Japan.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

08.09: Nagasaki remembered

2008-08-08T20:28:00.000-07:00

Joe O'Donnell photographed post-Atomic bombed cities Nagasaki and Hiroshima as a U.S. Marine. He kept some unauthorized photos for 45 years. He passed away last year but his son carries on the work on myspace.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Warning of Global Financial Crisis

2008-06-29T19:58:00.000-07:00

It seems that I'm not the only voice warning about the coming financial crisis (pointed out by various commenter at CR):

BIS renews slump fears as global economy pays the price. June 30, 2008
A year ago, the Bank for International Settlements startled the financial world by warning that we might soon face challenges last seen during the onset of the Great Depression. This has proved frighteningly accurate.
Fortis warns of American meltdown. June 29, 2008
Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles. June 28, 2008
RBS Sounds Alarm On Markets. June 18, 2008

And there are opinions on the response, like "What we can do in this dangerous moment" by Lawrence Summers and CR's commentary to Summers' options.

If you ask me, it's better to let things fall and then pick up the pieces rather than "try to do something" and end up prolonging the pain and the aftereffects.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Foreclosures coming to your neighborhood

2008-06-09T22:20:00.000-07:00

If you think you are (and will be) immune from the coming foreclosure tsunami, you need to check out realtytrac. The (P)re-foreclosures and (A)uctions on the map will point the way to future REO (B)ank-owned properties -- and will force your neighborhood prices to be lowered all around.

Here in Orange County, CA, we have seen homes owned by bank (REO) be listed for 40+% off. For example, one home we saw was bought for $600K last year (Feb 2007) and the bank repossessed the home and put it on the market for $325K last month (May 2008) and it went pending in matter of days.

And just yesterday I saw home (surrounded by "P"'s and "A"'s and "B"'s) for sale with the following notes:

Looking for a Steal? Well, STOP LOOKING!! YOU FOUND IT! This is NOT A FORECLOSURE & NOT A SHORT SALE! MOTIVATED SELLERS Want this Home Sold TODAY!!! [details deleted] Did YOU SEE THE PRICE?? It's NOT A MISPRINT and YOU Are Not Dreaming. LOWEST PRICED Regular Sale Property Around! Bring your checkbook! HURRY!!!

So, all those foreclosed homes will lower the comps and hurt normal sellers. These days, all the normal sellers stand out since their asking price is something like $100K or $200K higher than short sale or REO prices. In fact, just few blocks away from this above home was another normal home for sale with about the same spec except the list price was $200K higher!!!

And to think that we've just reached the end of the beginning of this downturn: we'll be getting bank failures, company failures, personal bankruptcies, unemployment and/or lower hours/paycheck, higher taxes, lower pension payments, and more foreclosures/REOs. I personally believe that this downturn will be long and painful: Great Depression II or GDII.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Free Credit Scores for 6 to 12 months

2008-06-07T14:47:00.000-07:00

According to Today's Show, "FREE CREDIT SCORES FOR ALL CONSUMERS? ALMOST..."

More details will be revealed on June 16 at www.listclassaction.com.

So don't sign up for your 30 day free scores when you can get one for months. The only caveat is that it isn't the commonly used FICO score. But it'll give you a relative strength of your credit score.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Granite Countertop and Radiation

2008-05-09T00:47:00.000-07:00

Do you remember the days when granite countertops were all the rage? Well, now they're asking: "Are granite countertops bad for your health?" It seems that some granites have high levels of radiation even radon gas coming out of them. Buyer beware...

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Sex scandals paid for by you and I: Our tax dollars at work

2008-05-08T08:08:00.000-07:00

LA Times today: L.A. [public] school dean suspected of concealing evidence in sex case: He is under investigation for keeping photos, notes and a scrapbook that documented a colleague's relationship with a female student. And this is already an older news. Santa Monica teacher held in abuse case was investigated in '06 is the latest LA news.

So people get outraged over Catholic priests sex scandals or even FLDS compound "abuse" but why isn't there riots in the streets when tax supported civil employees commit sex crimes, especially when they are in authoritative position among the vulnerable -- i.e., our young children?

And this L.A. news isn't isolated. Here's a 2004 article "Sex Abuse by Teachers Said Worse Than Catholic Church." And quick googling of news will show links like this. Tax supported public education at its best, I guess...

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved

Got my money back from Uncle Sam

2008-05-03T17:50:00.000-07:00

My money (so called "stimulus money") was refunded yesterday from IRS. So will we spend and help the economy? Probably not much: our rent's going up by $400 per month since we will move from a lease to month-to-month rent.

Meanwhile, my stock investment turned negative again (I'm about 80% short of the market and 20% cash). In mid-January I was ahead by 24% but now I'm under 5%. Not a big deal since fundamentally, the market cannot continue going up as it has been. Why? PE is high and getting higher since companies are reporting lower profits compared to previous year for the past 2 quarters (Q3'07 was -24%, while Q4'07 was -56%) and this quarter is -18% so far. The trend is down and as people have less money to spend on non-essentials (food & energy), the whole economy will continue to shrink. Some have their pay cut: for example, my parents are on social security and pension payments and they are now getting $30 less per month from their pension this year. Less income, plus more necessary expenses equals less discretionary spending.

So people are turning to other sources of money: retirement savings, credit cards and stuff. Just today I saw news item about lots of stuff are put on sale online, the biggest items put on sale are things like RVs which are recreational and requires gasoline/diesel to enjoy.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Financial Mess in Graphics

2008-04-22T18:09:00.000-07:00

Here's a graphical image of how bad things are across the US (from NY Times) as of December 2007. And to think we're just getting started with interest payment resets. We going to be in a world of hurt once all those funny mortgages reset to new payment schedule.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

We deserve what we ask for.

2008-04-21T22:10:00.000-07:00

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.
--Thomas Jefferson

At least some people were aware of the problem when banks have the run of the government (or at least the money of a country).

In the US, the Fed controls the interest rates used between banks. And for some time, they've kept the interest rates very low especially after 9/11. All this caused the housing bubble until 2005 and, for now, the commodities bubble. And we're going through the housing deflation (which I believe will last at least 10 years) and I'm sure the commodities will be next along with the stock market (I'm short with most of my investments). Fortunately in America, we won't have to worry too much about homelessness since most people today have too large home so taking in relatives and friends shouldn't be any problem during the coming long recession/depression ahead.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved

The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class

2008-04-05T12:24:00.000-07:00

Great video intro on the declining economics of American middle class family.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Homeschooling in California: Illegal or not?

2008-03-07T21:28:00.000-08:00

There's been some uproar over the decision made by California Court of Appeals recently on a case of "homeschoolers." LA Times had a sensational article titled "Ruling seen as a threat to many home-schooling families: State appellate court says those who teach children in private must have a credential." But if you take a step back, there is no need to panic: "Homeschooling is NOT Imperiled in California." (hat tip to LRC blog).

In sum: homeschoolers, TAKE A BREATH. You are not about to be criminally charged for choosing to educate your children at home, as the LA Times and the various commentators I mentioned above imply. You can still homeschool your kids, assuming that you can pass a criminal background check and aren't totally incompetent. The lawyers for these parents and homeschool advocates all over the state are gleefully watching all the outrage this has stirred up, but I think they should be ashamed of themselves for terrifying the parents of homeschooled children.

We should all keep in mind that outrage is fun, but not necessarily harmless.

Those parents who are absolutely freaked out about this case and its implications should go here for more information on homeschooling your child under the private school exemption. I suggest you be sure and read numbers 12-14.

And if you read what Department of California says, it's not too hard to be compliant with the law. (More or less: since law is always subject to interpretation.)

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Dark side of War on Terror and the End of Empire

2008-02-09T06:39:00.000-08:00

It seems that we have become the enemy ourselves. Here's a movie that documents it: Taxi to the Dark Side. (pointed out in HBB by txchick57).

Sad to see how the U.S. have lost our way: we have become an empire trying to police the world and in so doing are resorting to the kind of terror that we accuse of our enemies. And we're trying to do it all by borrowing a lot of money.

It seems like the writing is on the wall for the U.S.: we have over extended ourselves and will be a matter of time when we collapse under our own weight of too much debt. Just as home buyers who have overextended are finding that they cannot pay back their loan (how can they when their loan is 6 to 10 times their income, when the traditional guideline is to borrow no more than 2 or 3 times annual income), U.S. is in a similar bind of too many promises (real debt and future obligations like Medicare and Social Security) and not enough income to cover them (esp. with the baby boomers retiring and the recession that's just getting started).

What's enlightening for me is to read in the Bible what constitutes a blessing: You will lend to many nations but will borrow from none. (Deuteronomy 28:12) And the opposite curse: The alien who lives among you will [...] lend to you, but you will not lend to him. He will be the head, but you will be the tail. (ibid v44) So, now that we, the U.S., have become a borrowing nation, we have clearly moved from a positive nation to a negative one (I won't say we're blessed or cursed since the Bible was specifically talking about Israel but still the same principle applies, in my opinion). Sigh.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Peak Oil and Economy

2008-02-02T05:10:00.000-08:00

[Hat tip to Vox Day] WND reports "Discovery backs theory oil not 'fossil fuel': New evidence supports premise that Earth produces endless supply" (which is a free summary of for pay article "Abiogenic Hydrocarbon Production at Lost City Hydrothermal Field" Proskurowski et al. Science 1 February 2008: 604-607).

This could explain why oil is plentiful and new reserves are added, not reduce over the years. This could also explain why old, "exhausted" oil wells are found to be refilled with oil. Granted, we do pump them out sooner than they can be produced but still it seem to me that the peak oil fears are as manufactured as oil themselves.

As for the $100 crude? It's only a matter of time before it too falls down. I've worked for an oil exploration company for 12+ years and owned many shares (including stock options which I exercised for modest gain) so I had and still have interest in following crude prices. Over the years, it's gone up and down and the current peak has to be some combination of war "premium" and a lot of speculations and exchange rate premium (Middle East buys more from Europe so the dollar amount has to go up to cover the difference with the weaker dollar vs the Euro). If you ask me, commodities like crude oil and gold are in a bubble: it's only matter of time before they get deflated, just as the housing bubble is (still) deflating as I type.

BTW, currently my net worth is 80% short of the stock market (DXD, QID, SH and SRS). Overall I'm ahead but this week was not good for my portfolio. You should be (or keep) reading blogs like CalculatedRisk to see (they have nice graphs every once in a while) that we have just begun the downturn of the economy and over time the stock prices, I believe, will follow. Overall attitude, though, people are more bullish than bearish. Stocks should be a leading indicator but it's not all too reliable since people look at future performance based on past results. Stock valuation tools like PE ratio works if the economy is growing but not when the economy reverses: more companies will report fall in earnings (including negative numbers) as we are now seeing: WSJ has a great summary page.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Taking the First Step: Voting for Ron Paul

2008-01-23T06:07:00.000-08:00

OK, I've changed my mind: I've reversed and have mailed in my voter registration paper to take part in California Primary as a Republican for Ron Paul. I may even contribute to a politician for the first time ever.

I've voted for Bush in 2000 and became more and more dissatisfied with POTUS and after reading LRC, I've became a non-voter in summer of 2004 (during the primaries -- so I didn't vote for Bush the second round). I also turned anti-government (against any and all government intervention be it war or capital punishment). However, Ron Paul, whatever his chances are, gets my vote for being a libertarian in words and actions. I realize that my vote is only 1 out of millions but still at least I can make a statement of where I stand: for Ron Paul.

P.S. Take at peak at how homeschoolers are voting for the candidates so far at Homeschool World.

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

College and Career Don't Aways Mix

2008-01-07T20:06:00.000-08:00

Mrs Schlafly's "College Not Necessary for Many New Careers" gets to the point:

U.S. News & World Report, which has made a name for itself by ranking and announcing the Best Colleges every year, is now ranking and listing the Best Careers for young people. A comparison of the latest lists shows a shocking disconnect and makes for dispiriting holiday reading.

While the price of a college education has skyrocketed far faster than inflation, many careers for which colleges prepare their graduates are disappearing. U.S. News' Best Careers guide concludes that "college grads might want to consider blue-collar careers" because B.A. diploma holders "are having trouble finding jobs that require college-graduate skills."

Here are the bluecollar jobs:

biomedical equipment technician, firefighter, hairstylist/cosmetologist, and locksmith/security system technician. Other skilled blue-collar careers that scored well on our selection criteria: machinist (manufacturers report a shortage), nuclear plant technician (few people are entering the field, yet plans are on the books for building more plants), and electrician/electronics tech (above-average pay, and it's easier on the body than many other blue-collar careers).

So many of them only require do-it-yourself skills with very little start up money. How nice (compared to $40K to $120K+ required to get college degrees).

Copyright 2008, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Ron Paul the Proxy

2007-12-06T23:05:00.000-08:00

I've read (via dailypaul) a very thoughtful commentary of Ron Paul by Carl Fiser: "Presidential Candidate Ron Paul Bears Empty Pot For Americans." Here's a great quote:

No longer can it be said that Ron Paul is running for President. Amazingly enough, his candidacy has been hijacked, and it appears now that the people are running for President. . . through Ron Paul!

I read an earlier article by NY Times (Nov 10) which talked about empowering the supporters with the title "The Web Takes Ron Paul for a Ride." Fiser takes the analysis to the next level: supporters are using Ron Paul as the proxy for the office of Presidency. Talk about "We the people!"

Note: Ron Paul Blimp needs just few more dollars to take off!

Update 12/14: Fiser has an update "Supporters/Media Await Congressman Ron Paul’s Status With Bated Breath."

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Sunset of American Empire

2007-11-12T19:57:00.000-08:00

When I read "The uninvited guest: Chinese sub pops up in middle of U.S. Navy exercise, leaving military chiefs red-faced" it seems what American Empire is starting her sunset. America is busy fighting several war fronts (Iraq and Afghanistan and maybe Iran next), mortgage mess is turning into recession and probably a depression. And we now have China trying to one up America, militarily.

I like Ron Paul's proposal to bring all military back home (back from Japan, S.Korea, Diego Garcia, Gitmo, to name a few places) so that we can focus on our country and even our military toys, if that is what we want to do as a country.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Tea Party '07

2007-11-10T20:57:00.000-08:00

Here's an invite to join the biggest tea party of 07: TeaParty07 to support Ron Paul.

Seems that Guy Fawkes Day (or Night) was a great success for Ron Paul. Congrats!

BTW, I did learn one history lesson this week, thanks to a friend who pointed out this article "Happy Counterterrorism Day" which explains how US election day was all based on Guy Fawkes Day! Take that, King James! And as much as it has lost its meaning in terms of one vote, one difference, the original intent was to shake up the government on a periodic basis.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Entrepreneurs without Degrees

2007-11-06T06:12:00.001-08:00

"15 Successful Entrepreneurs Who Didn’t Need College" has a nice list of well known names who didn't get their degrees, like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Michael Dell as well as those like Mary Kay Ash and Henry Ford.

So, what kind of children are you raising?

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Remember, Remember, the 5th of November

2007-11-05T04:51:00.000-08:00

Happy Guy Fawkes Night!! It's a day remembered of a failure to overthrow the government. (How different from July 4th, where an out of sight set of colonies started a very successful rebellion.)

Ron Paul's campaign wants it to be a day to kick off Ron Paul Revolution, and turn into something to remember (at least for 2008 US elections) in a very positive way, at least create some record(s) in how much people contribute in one day (online?). You can track a live chart of the donation status. And donate here.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Housing Crash: Foreclosure increasing

2007-11-02T07:43:00.000-07:00

RealityTrac has a great map of USA with where the foreclosures are taking place. Click for it details.

We're just getting started since various ARM resets will take place over the next 4 years, and as these loans resets, people will find that they cannot pay their mortgage. That is, it's one thing to see a rise of few dollars or even $200, but when it resets at 50% or 100% of current payment, then it seems impossible and people have been and will continue to abandon their mortgages. And, if these reset charts are any indicator, things are going to get ugly for the next few years.

Keep in mind that foreclosure process takes months if not years to go through (and doesn't help when politicians put out moratorium to halt foreclosures -- the pain is delayed and made worse in the long run).

Some think that rents will go up with rising foreclosures but that's a mistaken notion. People will return to their parents or double up with their relatives (siblings, children, grandparents, etc.) -- so the demand will decline. The foreclosed homes will eventually turn into rentals. People who cannot sell their homes will turn into rentals. Which means that rental supply will increase (along with lowered demand), and all this will translate into seeing the rents get lower and lower.

The coming recession/depression will not be pretty, in my opinion....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

October 19, 1987: 20 year retrospective

2007-10-19T18:04:00.000-07:00

I started my full time career as software engineer on July, 1987. A few weeks after Black Monday, my employer had a 401k training session and people were nervous about investing and making small jokes about it. I invested in the market anyways and have done so pretty much until now. I turned to mostly cash in 2001 and all cash earlier this year. I've started a new full time job this summer, so I'm now putting money into 401k to get my full match and I'm throwing 100% into an international fund. Meanwhile, as I wrote earlier, I am 60% short the market (DXD, QID, SH) which are still negative since I got in too quick (was about +10% and then went all the way down to -14%, and now that the market has gone down a little bit, I'm "only" at -10%).

Here's a painful sign of the times: "Living paycheck to paycheck gets harder"

What used to last four days might last half that long now. Pay the gas bill, but skip breakfast. Eat less for lunch so the kids can have a healthy dinner.
[...]
Family Dollar, whose food offerings were limited to candy and snacks until two years ago, has expanded its mix of groceries like fruit cups, cereal and such refrigerated items as milk and ice cream while cutting back on shoes. This summer the chain began accepting food stamps.

So Americans are feeling the squeeze of the higher prices and hardly any wage increases (or loss of jobs), even though the unemployment statistic is very low historically and official GDP is still on track for growth. This trend (pinching pennies, barely surviving paycheck-to-paycheck) is not good for the economy, as more homedebtors get foreclosed and kicked out of their homes. Why? Because funny loans are about to reset higher next year (peaks around Q1/Q2), which means foreclosures will get higher Q3 or Q4 of 2008. But it won't be the peak: I believe we will hit it few years out (2010 or later) as American recession gets worse and people start losing their jobs and/or (severe) cuts in their income. Current foreclosures are mainly due to people borrowing more than they can afford and their ARM rates are resetting and no longer can pay the monthly due amount. These foreclosures will continue to increase for many years but to add on top, many people who have lost (and will lose) jobs and no longer cannot pay, as well. People have done well the past 7+ years of fattening so they have savings like 401K and IRA to tap on, to paying their bills. As we enter the 7+ years of lean times, many people will be hurt financially.

Do I expect a depression? Yes. When? Hard to say. How long? Again, hard to say. How am I preparing for it? Be debt free (we are renters). Have some cash (I have both dollar and yen handy) and hard assets on hand, which can be used to barter. Most of my recent "precious metal" investments have been in lead and brass -- granted, price per size/weight isn't as good as gold or diamond but I do have a big diesel pickup to carry it all (why diesel? because if oil/gasoline/diesel becomes impossible to obtain, I can always run it off of vegetable oil). Plus, with lead, it can be converted into protein (just to be clear, I'm thinking deer, quail, and the likes).

Last but not least, on Dow index: here's an interesting perspective on Dow members of 1987: "Dow members on "Black Monday" 1987." Note that 8 companies are no longer represented in the Dow (gone out of business, merged, etc.). And 4 of them are not part of the Dow component (but still alive). So, only 18 companie of the original 1987 Dow companies are part of the composite. I'll let you form your own conclusions....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Market Misc.

2007-10-11T23:34:00.001-07:00

What a week so far! Record high for Dow and S&P 500 index. Yes that means that I'm deeply in red with my investments since I've been short the market midway on the way down late July, early August so it went down some and then waaaay up. Looking behind, it seems I was a bit early with my shorts but I still believe the market will face correction sooner rather than later.

Articles like "U.S. Investors Face An Age of Murky Pricing: Values of Securities Tougher to Pin Down; Discord at Dillon Read" helps to confirms my belief.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Ron Paul hits front page: OC Register

2007-10-07T08:29:00.000-07:00

Our local rag, OC Register, in their commentary section, has put Ron Paul on front page of their paper edition (but not noticeable on their online page). Very well balanced coverage of Ron Paul and his supporters, including Lew Rockwell.

Update: here's my Digg entry: Ron Paul Phenomenon.

Someone else beat me to it: Ron Paul Phenomenon. (I guess I didn't look hard enough before my entry. At least I put it in the right topic: 2008 U.S. Election unlike this one which is in the political opinion)

Homicide Map

2007-09-29T21:36:00.000-07:00

Here's a cool map put together by LA Times reporter: Homicide Map of L.A. County

[Note: most of the homicide takes place in the poor neighborhoods. Picture says a lot!]

Effeminate Gaijin Men

2007-09-19T22:35:00.000-07:00

I had a good time reading "I sound like what in Japanese? In Japan, women and men speak different versions of the language. How's a guy to learn the difference?"

I've met and have known few guys who did learn the girlie way to talk Japanese and got a kick out of it (I don't think I ever corrected anyone). Being a former Japanese citizen (until I was 20) and I was fluent in Japanese until middle school (and relearned it in Japan 89-92), I at least knew the diff between male and female language. The only weakness I had was when I was in Japan, I had to learn to call myself "watashi" in business setting or when getting acquainted with strangers. I had always thought that "watashi" was a girlie talk but learned quickly that it is the more formal way for men to talk about self.

That wasn't the only problem I had in (re)learning Japanese but most people knew me as Japanese American and were usually helpful in correcting me....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Back to Normal and misc.

2007-09-08T06:29:00.000-07:00

School started this week. Sort of. We've chosen to get into normal school curricula via A Beka. My older son has tried their DVD course the past few months and it seems to work well enough so we've ordered the whole set for this school year (9th grade). And our younger son will be taking 7th grade A Beka, too.

As much as I'm pro-unschooling, my wife isn't comfortable managing and keeping good records of mishmash of textbooks and curricula, especially if we are to give opportunities for our sons to get into college (still working on her that college is overrated and unnecessary). And going with a full curricula, gives her, at least, a peace of mind (keep in mind that she grew up in Japan and going to school was the only way to officially "learn" and she followed the script pretty well.]

And since I have a regular full time job, there is no way I can do that for her. I'm more serious about starting my own business but I'm still not willing to "cut the umbilical cord" from mothership corporation (health care insurance, steady pay, etc.). I have started to tinker with programming but no progress to report (I'll start blogging in dannytech once I have something).

As for the market, I'm now back in the black but no real change: 60% short and 40% cash.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Misc Rambling

2007-08-20T06:52:00.000-07:00

The last few weeks have been pretty crazy: We were in Austin,TX for our youngest son's final J2M. Didn't get to do half the stuff I wanted to do but it went well, overall.

We also have my in-law's from Japan since last week until the end of this month so I have been and will continue to be a chauffeur during the weekends. Saturday we went to Death Valley National Park as a day trip (I thought I would be about 3 hours but took 4 hours of driving since where we used to live was 1 hour closer to where we are now -- so much for my math degree) and put in 620 miles overall. The smoke from Zaca fire made the park smoggy and a bit smelly.

Market is pretty crazy these days. I was doing well financially (since I'm 60% short: I'm betting that the stock market will crash and burn in the next few months), but since Fed took down the discount rate on Friday, I feel less wealthy. Not that I believe anything fundamental has changed. If you notice the mortgage market, they are eliminating all kinds of toxic loans or ninja loans or neutron-bomb loans. It's only a matter of time before the housing market freezes up (since new buyers cannot get new loans which means old sellers cannot sell their homes and buy yet another home). Homeowners will feel less wealthy and less money will go towards realtors, construction workers (remodelers), home inspectors, mortgage brokers, title companies, property tax office, furniture stores, home improvement stores, appliance makers to name a few industries tied to home ownership. The only questions remaining are: how long will it take to hit bottom and how bad will the bottom be?

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

More Misc: Market, Home Education, Dodge, etc.

2007-07-31T23:51:00.000-07:00

It seems that Mr. Market had a fake out on Monday but continued the downward trend today. I've put in some more short orders (now DXD) to get my net worth 60% short (40% cash). The market may go up and down for the short term but with the various investment banks having credit problems and many hedge funds blowing up, along with imploding mortgage lenders, the trend for the economy is very negative and the asset bubble will deflate sooner or later. We may not be at the very top but we're very close in my opinion and matter of time when things start to unwind either bit by bit or via a market crash(es).

We're signing up with a local church to be associated with their home educational program here in Orange County so we'll see how that goes. My wife wants to sign up our sons to CBS for teens so we'll see how that goes too.

As for our Dodge RAM, my wife and I put in the window film for it, but we didn't do a good job. It's a bit ugly in the application but I'm willing to live with it. Oh well....

We'll be on vacation the next few weeks so don't expect much posting nor commenting!

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved

Get Rich by Renting, not owning

2007-07-27T05:54:00.000-07:00

Here's a great article on why you're better off renting than owning: "Why rent? To get richer. A contrarian's view: Houses don't appreciate any faster than the level of inflation over the long term, so forget about buying a home and put your savings into stocks."

The article makes very reasoned arguments on why money in stocks are better return over long term than home since historically, after accounting for inflation and expenses, stocks return 7% while housing returns a big fat zero (OK, the article says 0.4% which is pretty much zero). That's right: zero percent return on your "investment." I like the Q&A found at the end to dispel some common myths.

I believe that the U.S. bubble housing of the past few years was diversion from the mean and if Japan's bubble history is any indicator, the prices will revert to the mean and will very likely undershoot before it returns to the mean. Just as stock market overreacts and sell below "value," home prices will go below the historically trends before things become normal. When everyone (well, almost everyone) talks about housing being the worst investment ever, you know it is the time to buy homes!

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Misc: Market, Dodge Ram, et al.

2007-07-26T23:38:00.000-07:00

It seems that the Stock Market isn't doing too well. I've decided to go almost 50% (from 12% of my net worth) short by placing buy orders for QID at tomorrow's stock open. So I'll be short via SH and QID.

Also, I have been working on our new truck, Dodge RAM 2500 QuadCab, 4x4 Diesel. If you need wiring diagrams, you can find it at Dodge / bodybuilder. Also, don't get a simple running boards since it's too short, in my opinion. (I bought Westin's lighted one and it turns out the best way to get the wire is from the dome light and run the wires down the center pillar and to the front [I did it to the passenger side, only because I miss-wired the first time and tried to use the glove lights (same color of wire as dome light) -- the wires going from the instrument panel looks like pain to get into so I went the easy way via the interior dome light]). If you have the money, get Amp Research Power Board.

I'll be on vacation a week from now so I may not blog much until September. We got some deer tags so we're looking forward to hunting in the fall. We will be catching some grunions, too.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Adults Shouldn't Play with Children

2007-07-23T23:25:00.000-07:00

"Leave those kids alone: The idea that adults should be playing with their kids is a modern invention -- and not necessarily a good one" How true.

I was drilled into my head that playing with my children was very important part of raising them. And so I did. But looking back, it isn't the best way to raise them. Adult world is different from children and it isn't good to blur that.

My oldest son is a teenager and my younger son will be one in few months. However, they see playing (computer games) as the most important way to spend their time rather than study or work. I haven't really thought through of what kind of children I would end up with.

As an unschooler, I have been more hands off with their education (although my wife wanted and have put in little more structure than that). Yet, life is more than just pursuing whatever is "interesting." With freedom comes responsibility not just for oneself but for others: God, family, extended family and church. I'll blog on this some more as I think through what it means for my family....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Bloggers fight local gov

2007-07-23T20:10:00.000-07:00

"Bloggers take aim at city governments -- and hit home" Some websites are watchdogs, others are just scurrilous, but their influence on the cities they cover is growing.

It's a cute article on how blogging levels the playing field for the citizens who can only say so much in public meetings. Blogs allow people to write their thoughts but also record and publicize what the politicians are doing: something only the press had the power to do before but now anyone with a cell phone (with camera) can take matters into his own hands and either blog it or youtube it to the world!

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Guiliani: "Freedom is about authority"

2007-07-15T22:58:00.000-07:00

In 1994, Rudy Guiliani gives a speech and has some very disturbing quotes:

Freedom is about authority. Freedom is about the willingness of every single human being to cede to lawful authority a great deal of discretion about what you do.

Somehow, he's missed on the "free" part of freedom. It's about being free from mere human authority [only God given liberty is true freedom that not only cannot be taken away by other humans but worth dying for] and being personally responsible.

And then we have a warped meaning of what a citizen is:

They are going to have to be just as solid and just as strong in teaching every single youngster their responsibility for citizenship. We're going to find the answer when schools once again train citizens. Schools exist in America and have always existed to train responsible citizens of the United States of America.

Sounds to me he wants to see robots raised rather than free thinking people who can choose to be "patriotic" or not. Being responsible is not about obedience but accepting the consequence of one's actions. And schools may have existed to churn out robots (see Alvin Toeffler's comments about education in The Third Wave). But citizens to be raised need to be those who can start a Revolution aka "Declaration of Independence" (if not Civil War) and finish to completion.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

College degree deprecated

2007-07-13T07:40:00.000-07:00

"Bosses rely on psychological tests over degrees to find the best staff" (hat tip voxday).

So companies don't see that college degrees are good enough to work for them. How, umm, quaint. We'll go back to personal references and portfolio of previous works, something normal for freelancers today (like photographers or design artists) and maybe even some proof of pedigree after working/interning under some master craftsman (tradesman, etc.). Like how things are done with martial arts, I guess.

And if one has to go through so much effort to be self sufficient, why bother working for a mega-corp?

Personally, health care insurance is one reason why I'm willing to be a corporate slave. I think that current health care cannot sustain itself as it is now and things will change to benefit individuals rather than corps. [No, I don't think nationalized health care would help as Moore et al proposes: de-regulating everything from medical license to pharmaceuticals would lower costs and insurance will become real insurance the way it is with say life insurance.] How soon things will change is hard to say, just as it is hard to predict when the current bubble stock market will crash (I'm in the red with my shares of SH thanks to record highs for at least the Dow index).

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

RFP: jury nullification t-shirt

2007-07-12T07:29:00.000-07:00

As being discussed at Vox's blog, what's a good way to get out of jury duty? I've posted a comment, but it should be a post.

So, my Request For Proposal (RFP): jury nullification t-shirt. There are ways to make money from this since there's already one out there but not what I had in mind. Requirements are:

Jury nullification statement that's short and sweet. Something like "Jury Nullification: A citizen's right to ban immoral laws."
Must be eye-catching and visible to those who are color blind and away at least 100 feet. (I had to sit in the back row when I was in the jury pool).
Must be printed in the top 25% of the shirt (so that those who sit behind you can still read it -- the first and last time I was on a jury pool, I was with 120+ potential jurors and sat on bench seats).
Must be something I can wear on day-to-day basis (out on beach, pool, mall, restaurants) and not be too distracting. I don't want to be kicked out of stores, etc. for wearing it.

In return: I will buy one shirt (maybe 2) and will freely provide links to the shirt.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Financial Pain Ahead: why housing problem is still ahead

2007-07-01T07:23:00.000-07:00

The following chart is from OC Register blog entry and it shows how the "exotic" loans will reset their interest rates over the next many months:

(You can click above for the larger image.)

It seems that March 2008 is when people will see the most amount of change in their mortgage payments. And almost everyone will not be able to pay the new higher interest rate (since people got low "teaser" rates and usually bought the most they can buy/borrow at that time). Which means people will default and get foreclosed 3-9 months later. Expect to see record high foreclosures by the end of 2008 -- if the economy hums along as it is doing now. If the economy tanks and unemployment rises, then who knows when the foreclosures will peak since those who have fixed interest rate mortgages will default as well (not just those with "toxic" mortgages) and add to foreclosures.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

2nd Amendment at work: Great Depression

2007-06-23T03:04:00.000-07:00

Here's a story from a comment at Calculated Risk (by Hazard):

As far as foreclosures go my father once told me that he attended quite a few foreclosure auctions in the 1930s. This was in the rural south.

And those auctions proceeded as follows.

All local residents attended bringing their hunting rifles and shotguns. When each house (or farm) came up for auction the original owner of it bid $1. The residents then pointed their loaded waepons at the sheriff and auctioner. The house was then sold to the only bidder for $1.

A nice way to keep the government and taxation (without representation) in check....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Big Changes: job, home, investments

2007-06-20T19:03:00.000-07:00

I have taken a job in Orange County so we'll be moving this weekend and I'll start a new work next week. My internet access will be out for a while so don't expect much the next week or so. [but then I haven't been actively posting these days]

Also, I have been neutral towards stock market and have been mostly cash. I did have S&P500 fund for several years although only 12% of my investments. I cashed it in Feb right after the big drop. Today, I have gone negative and invested the same amount into SH. I'll probably put more in over time. I've been fairly negative about stocks but I was in cash until now. Take a look at some housing bubble blogs on what's happening and why I think the tide is turning regarding the market.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Gen Y not ready to be slaves

2007-06-19T08:37:00.000-07:00

I read "Gen Y often lacks desired job skills" and thought why shouldn't they keep their attitude and way of life? If more than one are "slackers" (from those of us who are older), then it seems that there are opportunities to serve other slackers and profit from it. Just as DJ's and musicians leeches off these Gen-Y, why not enable Gen-Y to profit from each other by meeting the needs of their peers (and others interested in their "culture"). Sounds like an opportunity to me and a chance to never be beholden to "the man."

Now, unfortunate fact of this world is that there are evil people who would prey upon Gen-Y and we are conditioned to think that mommy government suppose to protect them but it is us the parents who need to raise up children who can handle such attacks on their own. Isn't this the very nature of becoming an adult? At 18 they are legally on their own and just as we taught them to battle cars (in crossing the road), we need to get our children to battle the dangers of other adults (everything from financial to emotional and spiritual scammers).

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved

Accidental Deaths

2007-06-07T19:12:00.000-07:00

National Safety Council has a new report out: "Accidental Deaths Increasing at Alarming Rate Poisonings, Overdoses Seeing Greatest Gains: One Person Killed by an Accident Every Five Minutes"

Here's a sobering summary:

For people between 1 and 41 years of age, accidents are the leading cause of death in the nation. While accidents continue to be the 5th leading cause of death overall, exceeded only by heart disease, cancer, stroke and chronic lower respiratory diseases, accidental deaths are increasing at a greater rate than that of any of the top four causes of death.

Their charts for 2005 (preliminary) is good too:

Motor-vehicle 45,800
Poisoning 20,900
Falls 17,700
Choking 4,600
Drowning 3,600

So, don't get in cars, don't put anything into your mouth and don't stand up....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Infant cramming

2007-05-27T19:34:00.000-07:00

I thought Nightline's "Fast Tracking Toddler's" was just a fluke, but it seems that LiveScience story at Yahoo has "Infants Have 'Amazing Capabilities' That Adults Lack," to fan the flames.

However, if you read the article carefully it only really looks out language acquisition not about all kinds of intelligence. Which means that for a parent to expect their young charge to become the next Einstein is a bit naive, in my opinion. [On the other hand, how many Einstein's do we need in this world?]

In Japanese, there's a saying "oya-baka" or stupid parent syndrome or "my child is the smartest, greatest, strongest, most beautiful, most talented person in the world" self-duplicity. And I have a feeling that they (the parents, if not the children themselves when they get older) will probably regret in the long run.

Why do I write this? Because yours truly was raised by a "kyoiku-mama" or educational mom who pushed her children along and although I didn't crack and I did keep up my grades I do recall my relief when we moved out after 8th grade (i.e., to start my high school) such that I could no longer take both American and Japanese classes during the weekdays. I guess I continued to push myself during high school and college because of the momentum my parents provided in me (I guess to please my parents?). It was only during graduate school did I learn about homeschooling which helped me start to question my goals and purpose and, over the years, question everything from why testing, to why college/degrees and why government? My "brainwashing" took years for me to absorb and then many decades to undo.

I hope to not take my sons through such brain twisting that I've gone through. But only time will tell if I am successful or not....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Job Change

2007-05-27T18:29:00.000-07:00

I've accepted a full time job in Orange County so off to another county I go (I'm living in San Bernardino County and the commute would be about 2 hours one way). I'm starting end of next month so I have 4 weeks to find a place and move -- hopefully before I start work.

The only pain will be to pack up and move again. Just when we thought we got settled, we have to move again. We haven't settled in a place yet but we'll lock in a place hopefully this coming weekend (June 1 or so).

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Firefighters are not to protect you

2007-05-27T17:26:00.000-07:00

"Deaths challenge firefighting strategy" has the following interesting quotes:

A blaze that killed five federal firefighters last year has emboldened those who question the cost of saving the ever expanding number of homes on the fringe of wilderness.

[...] However, the deaths also were blamed on social and political pressures and decisions to put homes before the safety of firefighters, according to a report last week from the California Department of Forestry & Fire Protection.

[...] "We are not going to die for property," said Tom Harbour, national director of fire and aviation management for the Forest Service. "It's time for homeowners to take responsibility for the protection of their homes."

So, not only are police not there for you, firefighters aren't going to be there for you, either: you're on your own. So much for your tax dollars....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Happy National Police Week!

2007-05-26T08:42:00.000-07:00

In case you've missed it, last week was National Police Week. You can see your tax dollar at work

Happy Mother's Day, esp if you're unborn

2007-05-13T08:25:00.000-07:00

(The words read "I promise to give you flowers .... and hugs and kisses... ...next mother's day... ... if you let me.")

(click here to view)

Gordon Campbell
Inland Valley Bulletin
May 12, 2007

EditorialCartoonists.com

Plug for Ron Paul for President

2007-05-08T17:28:00.000-07:00

Lamentation of Virginia Tech: the non-education

2007-04-18T06:50:00.000-07:00

As sad as it was to hear, read and see about the shooting at Virginia Tech, it was even more sobering to find that so many people were killed with essentially one handgun (2 guns were found, one was 22 caliber which is a pea shooter and nearly impossible to kill anyone and the other was 9mm, not the most powerful handgun to use for mass killing, but good enough to kill unarmed and unprotected people).

There are many ways to analyze this crime: if the teachers and even students were armed (aka Israeli style), not much more than 1 or 2 would have been killed before the shooter was stopped. (More gun control would be detrimental, since it will mean more law abiding citizens would be unprotected and criminals would be less inhibited to do their evil deeds.) Or, why it's better to study at home, even if it is online degree program, as Key-Word likes to tout. Or our school system is raising a flock of sheep that become immobilized during shooting and can't deal with unusual situation without authoritative directives (rather than running away or fighting back on their own: based on the little news release as of date, several were killed in one room, much like what happened at Columbine or Amish school house).

Unfortunately, changes which will take place would be minor, mostly restricting our freedom. For example, California is pushing a new bill to require instant background checks for handgun ammo. The fact is, criminals will get their ammo anyway they can, by theft, black market or going out of state. No law's going to stop them. This law will only tax the law abiding citizens with more paperwork and more fees (that is, tax on our time and money).

In the U.S., we would need some horrific crimes like what happened in Israel before teachers and students become armed, since it's impossible to police all school rooms. Somehow, I have a feeling America will become a police state like Nazi Germany or 21st century U.K., rather than gun touting Israeli citizens....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Driving dangers: Cops and drunks

2007-03-30T23:25:00.000-07:00

"High-Speed Chase Leads to Tragedy" has a sad stat:

More that [sic] 300 people a year in the United States are killed in high-speed police chases. One third of them are innocent bystanders. But cops involved in high-speed chases are rarely criminally charged.

So, 100 innocent people per year die (that's 1 every 3 days or so). Your tax dollars at work, the civil"servant" who "serves and protect" the public. NOT!

"Drunk Driving Laws Cause Drunk Driving Accidents" makes great argument on why current laws make drunks even more dangerous. Makes you think!

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Raising the Next Rebellious Einsteins

2007-03-30T03:16:00.000-07:00

"The World Needs More Rebels Like Einstein" points out the "real" Einstein:

what made Einstein special was his impertinence, his nonconformity, and his distaste for dogma.[...]

At a time when the US, worried about competition from China, is again emphasizing math and science education, Einstein's genius reminds us that a society's competitive advantage comes not from teaching the multiplication or periodic tables but from nurturing rebels. Grinds have their place, but unruly geeks change the world. [...]

"Imagination is more important than knowledge," Einstein later said.

So, how many children, in any school, are being taught to be like Einstein? School and so called "education" are too focused on memorization and knowledge, rather than applying ideas and even stretching the [old] ideas.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

American non-justice at work

2007-03-11T09:19:00.000-07:00

Stories like: "U.S. attorneys often clash with Washington: Ousted prosecutors, many from the West, had disagreed with an increasingly involved Justice Department" point out how American justice system is about power play, not search for truth and justice.

Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely [Lord Acton]

Anti-Big Brother

2007-03-08T18:50:00.000-08:00

"Man with TV show alibi wins settlement from L.A.: He was cleared of murder because outtakes from 'Curb Your Enthusiasm' put him at a Dodgers game at the time of the crime."

Video camera can be a good thing as long as it can be used to prove one's innocence. Or prevent police brutality. In that sense, Rodney King was a good thing: video camera allows the playing field between cops and non-cops (both criminals and LAC or law-abiding citizens).

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

DIY: How to succeed at home improvement projects

2007-03-01T21:49:00.000-08:00

And now, something very different but still educational:
"How to Succeed at Any Home Improvement Project"

Wikihow has some very interesting tips and well worth keeping an eye on [I do it via Google's personalized home page].

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Ego Trip of Gen-Y

2007-02-27T06:59:00.000-08:00

"Gen Y's ego trip takes a nasty turn: A new report suggests that an overdose of self-esteem in college students could mean a rough road ahead." This article reminds me of the book titled"The postponed generation: why American youth are growing up later" which talks of pre-Gen-X [the last of baby boomers, I would guess, of which I am one of them].

The report summary:

researchers warn that a rising ego rush could cause personal and social problems for the Millennial Generation, also called Gen Y. People with an inflated sense of self tend to have less interest in emotionally intimate bonds and can lash out when rejected or insulted.
Some of the increase in narcissistic attitudes was probably caused by the self-esteem programs that many elementary schools adopted 20 years ago, the study suggests. It notes that nursery schools began to have children sing songs that proclaim: "I am special, I am special. Look at me."
Other trends in American culture, including permissive parenting, increased materialism and the fascination with celebrities and reality TV shows, may also heighten self-regard, said study coauthor W. Keith Campbell, psychology professor at the University of Georgia. "It's part of a whole cultural system," he said.

And I give you a sobering ending:

Marc Flacks, an assistant professor of sociology, said that he believed that narcissism was too harsh a description for current students and that it was more important to discuss why "we have a society in which narcissistic behavior is a good quality to have."
"This is a bottom-line society, so students are smart to seek the most direct route to the bottom line," he added. "If you don't have a me-first attitude, you won't succeed."

Courts: why they aren't worth the tax dollars

2007-02-25T08:06:00.000-08:00

LA Times opinion "Traffic court -- it's no democracy: A visit shows arresting officers go unquestioned while defendants are all but ignored" is eye opening (the print edition is titled "Railroaded in traffic court?")

I've never been to a traffic court so I can't say one way or another but based on the tickets my wife and I have gotten over the years, it makes sense. The thing that stood out the most is:

By the time the judge got to me, I had observed that every single case in which the officer took the trouble to appear was resolved in exactly the same way, regardless of how the defendants argued their cases or what evidence or witnesses they presented.
That entire morning, the judge never questioned or challenged a word uttered by a police officer. Several times during the proceedings, I observed officers looking over at their brothers in blue and smirking as they gave evidence. It was plain to me that the judge would accept the police officers' words without question or challenge.

Police: why they aren't worth the tax dollars

2007-02-23T16:27:00.000-08:00

"Why Smart Cops Do Dumb Things" explores why police apparatus have become dumb and dumber. [That Boston scare over publicity stunt which didn't raise an alarm for 2 weeks (in other cities, presumably) and then the police overreacted.]

And on the other side, "Government Goons Murder Puppies! The drug war goes to the dogs." (Hat tip to Vox Day.) So they're too busy "fighting" victimless "crime" including killing "dangerous" puppies. Right.

Unfortunately, we, the people have become too dependent on the State to protect us and allow the State to do their deeds. As Arthur Silber points out in "America, Now Without the Revolution" it's as if we're back to King George [not to be confused with the current POTUS]. And Key Word has an appropriate post called "Worshipping God or Worshipping the Government."

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Housing Bubble: Japan vs US

2007-02-19T20:51:00.000-08:00

"Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt" came out Dec 25, 2005, but is a good reminder on what happened in Japan and how we in America is going through the same thing right now (popping of the bubble). We'll see how far down we'll go and how long it'll take to hit bottom this time around.

Here are two great quotes:

"During a bubble, people don't believe that prices will fall," he [Yukio Noguchi, a finance professor at Waseda University] said. "This has been proven wrong so many times in the past. But there's something in human nature that makes us unable to learn from history."
In the 1980's, the expectation of rising real estate prices made many Japanese homebuyers feel comfortable about taking on huge debt. And they did so by using exotic loans that required little money upfront and that promised low monthly payments, at least for a short time.

Housing Option: in your car

2007-02-19T08:48:00.000-08:00

"Homeless by choice, O.C. student learns self-reliance: Andy Bussell says his life in his pickup truck has taught him to adapt and change."

Works great for single man but would be harder for woman and even more tough for a family. But would be a great way to hold down cost....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Drug problems: legalize and penalize

2007-02-17T10:31:00.000-08:00

Just as Las Vegas become gambling capital of U.S., why not make N.O. drug capital, legally? Dr. Block's "Drug Legalization: How to Radically Lower the Number of Murders in New Orleans" and "Rejoinder to Prof. Perlstein on Legalizing Drugs in New Orleans" make compelling case for drug legalization.

On the other hand, the drug war should be on those pimping the life threatening kind (FDA and drug makers), as pointed out by "The Drug War Is Upside-Down". Improperly used legal drugs have crated life threatening diseases and the blame is mainly on legal drug pimps [so that they can perpetuate themselves both the gov and companies: much like the symbiotic relationship between police and illegal drug dealers].

Copyright, 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

War on Drugs: fighting back

2007-02-16T22:11:00.000-08:00

Barry Cooper is an ex-cop promoting his DVD on how not to get busted for drugs. The article "Don't Go Bust: A turncoat narc offers tips on how to move your weed" By KEITH PLOCEK is a great intro to Barry.

I'm not a drug user, never have been and don't plan to be one but as a step towards civil disobedience, I'll go and order his DVD (by Sunday Feb 18th for the $10 bonus DVD deal). In fact, I don't even like alcohol, but I am addicted to caffeine (coffee). I've never smoked anything, tobacco or otherwise.

The article "Kathryn Johnston's Real Killer" points out the true evils of the drug war: police abuse and power trip by those in "authority." All to keep the drug prices up (and money to the drug dealers) -- as well as money flowing to the police force, national and local alike. Just as Prohibition failed rather quickly, drug war has been a failure for a long time. For some reason, the Drug War is on going with no real change ($50 billion a year by taxpayers and about the same amount of profit for the drug dealers).

What's worse is the extent that government employees will go to get their case through the system, no matter how wrong they are, and how innocent the accused are. Read "Duke and Durham: The Criminal Cover-up Continues" and see how the government workers commit crimes and aren't (and probably won't) be prosecuted while the innocents (Duke students) had their reputation ruined and their (parents' money) pockets emptied.

Copyright, 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Strongest vs Weakest banks

2007-02-16T22:05:00.000-08:00

If you haven't seen this list, make sure your money is safe:
"The Weiss Watchdog: Strongest Banks and Weakest Banks"

As pointed out by a poster in thehousingbubble blog.

Debt and Death Tolls

2007-02-14T21:38:00.000-08:00

"Avoid the Rush" by Chris Leithner points out how US debt was kept low at the founding of U.S.A. but as America got involved in wars, the debt kept piling up and now stands at $440K per household (about nine times the medium income).

The 90 second spot on American war death toll is very sobering. And if you compare the numbers together, it looks like:

Year	War and other events	Deaths	Debt thousand $	GDP
1789	American Revolution	4,435	$80,000	30%
1812			$45,000
1816	1812 War	2,264	$125,000
1835			$38	0%
1848	Mexican-American War	13,283	$65,000
1857			$30,000	5%
1861			$75,000
1865	Civil War	364,511	$2,800,000	65%
1880			$2,100,000	15%
1890			$1,100,000	10%
1900			$1,200,000	8%
1918	World War I	116,516	$25,000,000	25%
1930	Great Depression start		$15,000,000	18%
1940	Great Depression peak		$72,000,000	38%
1945	World War II	395,500+	$260,000,000	110%
1950			$257,000,000	95%
1960	Korean War (50-53)	36,574	$290,000,000	70%
1970	Vietnam War (59-75)	58,209	$390,000,000	28%
1980			$930,000,000	30%
1989	Grenada'83 & Beirut'84	19 & 266	$2,700,000,000	48%
2001	Gulf War I & Somalia	382 & 43	$5,700,000,000	56%
2007	Gulf War II (Jan)	3,000+	$8,700,000,000	67%
2007	Full accounting of debt		$53,000,000,000	400%

Decline of (upper) Middle Class Neighborhoods

2007-02-10T09:39:00.000-08:00

If you've wondered why your formerly nice neighbors seem to be in the decline, here are many reasons why:

"Liar loans" (or officially "stated" or "no doc" loans) allow people to buy homes beyond their means. Many frauds have been reported in the news and are affecting various sub-prime mortgage companies. So, formerly poor (so called "sub-prime" borrowers) could buy homes in the (upper) middle-class neighborhoods with 0% down. With Neg-Am ARM, the initial payments are "affordable" but watch out when the rates and payments reset to higher numbers.
Homes bought with fraud or even unlived in homes can be taken over by pot growers or meth labs.
Section 8 vouchers (free money from the taxpayers) allow poor to move out from downtown slums to middle class suburbs.
Anti-gang push by big cities means the gangs move out to the suburbs.
And if some disaster strikes like flood or tsunami or hurricane or earthquake: there goes your neighborhood....

enemy weapon: google

2007-02-08T21:25:00.000-08:00

"Googled by the Enemy" starts off with:

In January, British troops conducting raids on insurgents in Basra, Iraq, found printouts of aerial maps from Google Earth detailing the coordinates for British camps in the area. Though dated, the maps revealed the locations of buildings, tents, and other vulnerable areas of British forces. A week or so after the discovery, and after negotiations with the British government, Google (GOOG) reportedly replaced the geospatial pictures found by insurgents—taken in 2004—with images taken in 2002, prior to the invasion by coalition forces.

But the discovery of the maps underscores how insurgents appear to be a step ahead of us in utilizing our own technologies against our troops and allies.

Ain't that great? So technology can really help level the playing field between the "professionals" (military and the police) and "civilians" (aka "terrorists"). I doubt if the Founding Fathers had these kind of technologies in mind when they amended the U.S. Constitution with "the right of the people to keep and bear Arms."

Copyright, 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

American English: The authorized version?

2007-02-03T22:19:00.000-08:00

Many years ago, I had a conversation with a co-worker from France and we had a mutual co-worker from Quebec and I asked the Frenchman, how is the Quebecer's French and was told "quaint." And I thought that was very interesting.

And tonight, I saw a NHK program, with my Japanese wife, called "Let's Play with Languages of the World" where a professor mentioned that American English is the older version of (British) English. And even though it was the first time my wife and I heard that, I immediately got it because of what I heard of Quebec and even about Brazilian Portuguese. My wife mentioned how Japanese emigrants [Brazil and U.S.] tend to keep and preserve the [older] language while their home county, Japan, evolves ahead, as well.

So American English is the older version of English. And to think that we were speaking the more modern version of English. How quaint....

Copyright, 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

FDIC closes a bank

2007-02-02T22:02:00.000-08:00

It seems that bank closure has started. FDIC has taken over today: Metropolitan Savings Bank, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It had only $16 million so not a very big back, but we'll see how many will get closed in the next few months....

Student Loan still touted as a good thing?

2007-01-31T17:43:00.000-08:00

"Most Latino students spurn college loans: Educators fear that a tendency to work their way through school can hurt them academically." And what's wrong with not becoming enslaved to the loan provider (Sallie Mae, in this case)?

People give stats on how people with degrees make more money but that's only for those who are working regular jobs. You can't tell real income when people run their own business especially since their net worth is more important than any measure of annual income [i.e., they pour their positive cash flow back into the business rather than withdrawing for personal use].

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Bank Run: what we can look forward to

2007-01-28T07:01:00.000-08:00

Here's something from Time (Monday May 27, 1985), as posted in The Housing Bubble Blog:

When a savings and loan crisis hit Maryland last week, depositors knew all too well what to do. They gathered up their lawn chairs, thermos bottles and portable radios and lined up outside the banks as if they were embarking on a familiar American outing. In a sense, they were. Only two months ago, depositors across the U.S. witnessed scenes right out of the Great Depression during a panic that temporarily shut down Ohio’s 69 privately insured thrifts. At the time, Governor Richard Celeste warned several other states that they should prepare for similar events. “You’re sitting on a time bomb,” he told Maryland Governor Harry Hughes.

As many banks start to fail, this will be a small foretaste of what might happen. On the other hand, with internet (& phone) access, people may try to withdraw from the web right when the rumor starts and spread the panic online. [Where they will take the money to may be another failing bank so it may not make sense...]

Why Public Schools Promote Hate

2007-01-27T11:21:00.001-08:00

"Teaching Hostility" by John Markley is a great article on why public school promotes hate. It's because tax money is used to teach something to children and when we have plurality of values, it's impossible to teach that something which everyone can agree to. That is, majority values are not what I necessary want my children to be taught. So, in the public schools, people get up and arms over creation vs evolution, prayer or not, sex ed or not, religion, Christian words and ideas, etc. And ensuing PR (public relations) campaign, legislative movements, lawsuits, etc.

All because tax money is used to educate our children.

Without forced education, people would spend their money on what they want for their children and will vote with their feet (and dollars). Of course, we've chosen to teach ourselves, but that's an option most people still will not consider....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Empty Nesting: dry "run"

2007-01-26T20:18:00.000-08:00

My son turned 14 this week and we gave him a cellphone [on our family plan at T-Mobile: one thing nice is that it is only $10 extra + tax to add his number].

This weekend, he and his younger brother are away from home with my sister skiing (with her friends). They've been to sleepovers at church and friends birthday parties, all within few minutes away from home. However, this is the first time they'll be away for more than one night: in fact for 2+ days. Getting his phone call just now at his destination (300 miles away) hits home how he (and his brother) are no longer near home and they are on their own [well, not really since my sister is with them]. Still, not being a short driving distance away from them is a different feeling (on business trips, I knew my wife was with them so, even though I missed my family, it wasn't the same as it is now).

It's certainly very quiet tonight and I guess it's a prelude to what things will be like in about 6 years from now (our youngest is 12)....

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Enslaving the people: government and banks

2007-01-25T22:41:00.000-08:00

The video "America Freedom to Fascism" is a great video which explains the farce of American freedom, especially when it comes to money, from taxes to Federal Reserve, as well as how government is reaching into our private lives like RFID to track us.

I love how Honorable Dr. Ron Paul points that today, we need permission to do anything: be it open business, own land, drive cars, or even own guns. They can now spy on us by peaking into our phone call records, medical records, library book checkout records, listen to our phone calls, read our emails and snail mail.

Our legal freedom is being legislated way one law at a time. Meanwhile we have bonded ourselves to the banks through loans ("The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender." Proverbs 22:7), which means that we have given up financial freedom. We are also mentally conditioned to follow (be enslaved by) leaders (teachers, employers, politicians, etc.) and the boob tube (actually, various forms of entertainment). Spirituality is much the same: follow the leaders or else! (Women might find comfort in such an environment but freedom is given up when formal structures are put in place.)

So, what freedom is left?

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

habeas corpus denied by Bush Administration

2007-01-23T20:24:00.000-08:00

If you think the justices of SCOTUS have liberal interpretation of US Constitution, read what U.S. Attorney General, Alberto Gonzales is quoted with:

“There is no expressed grant of habeas in the Constitution; there’s a prohibition against taking it away,” Gonzales said.

[So, a right to fair trial is not in the Constitution at all?] and

Gonzales continued, “The Constitution doesn’t say every individual in the United States or citizen is hereby granted or assured the right of habeas corpus. It doesn’t say that. It simply says the right shall not be suspended” except in cases of rebellion or invasion.”

[So, only explicit permission in the Constitution is a guaranteed right. Anything else is up to interpretation.]

The ten commandment analysis is poking fun of this new method [I personally don't think it's all that accurate but kind of funny].

This trend by the current administration is negative: looking at our phone conversation and phone records, our email (eschelon), snail mail, holding people at Gitmo without cause, and allowing the torturing of prisoners. What's next? Round up the terror-bent racial group(s)?

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.

Buying a home now

2007-01-20T10:25:00.000-08:00

As much I believe that we'll face serious economy downturn over the next few years:

The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

To grow fruits and nuts (for personal consumption, not for earning money) for the long term, we have to buy our own land, now.

So, the question I'm facing is, how to buy at the current inflated prices? I'm thinking just the land would be cheaper than trying to buy a home with large lot. But then buying a distressed home (foreclosed or "fixer upper") might be a good choice now that the news is out on how bad the real estate has become.

Copyright 2007, DannyHSDad, All Rights Reserved.